November 15, 2022 | Biden-Xi G20, US-China Structural Constraints
Thoughts, Readings and Current Events
Thoughts
Based on US President Biden and China’s pre-eminent leader Xi Jinping’s bilateral meeting yesterday in Indonesia, US-China relations appear to be improving. It’s unclear whether these positive developments can sustain over the medium term.
Fundamentally US-China relations are defined by their structural constraints, not by relationships between individual leaders. Over the long term, the relationship between the United States and China will be framed by China’s evolving position within the current US-led world order.
A core fixture of US global dominance is its regional hegemony in the Asia Pacific. Naturally, China’s rising geopolitical influence threatens the United States’ global and regional status as the world’s dominant superpower.
In the face of what it perceives to be growing US hostility and an increasingly unstable global geopolitical environment, China feels compelled to gradually supplant the United States as the dominant power in East Asia, thereby ensuring China’s national security interests and the long-term legitimacy of China’s Communist Party.
The United States and China are fundamentally complex, semi-autonomous entities driven by a discrete set of security interests. The November 14 Biden-Xi meeting at the G20 Summit in Indonesia represents a short-term improvement in relations in the short-term. Yet, over the long run, the US-China bilateral relationship faces considerable headwinds beyond the control of individual leaders.
US-China Relations
After the Biden-Xi meeting, Beijing signals optimism over relations with Washington. (New York Times)
“This meeting was both a continuation of exchanges up to now, and augurs a new starting point,” Mr. Wang told reporters after the summit, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry transcript that also appeared in People’s Daily.
“The U.S. and China should show the world that they are able to manage and control their differences,” he said.
But Mr. Wang also offered a reminder that the long standoff over the future of Taiwan remains a source of potential crisis. Mr. Xi, like other Chinese leaders, has insisted that the self-ruled island eventually unify with Beijing.
How China’s Language Shifted After Landmark Xi-Biden Meeting (Bloomberg)
After Xi Jinping spoke for more than three hours on Monday with Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit, China’s readout of the meeting indicates the country’s approach to US ties is shifting.
The leaders set a more positive tone for relations, which reached a low point after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a controversial visit to Taiwan in August. Presidents Xi and Biden greeted each other with a handshake and agreed to resume bilateral talks on climate change, economic stability and health and food security. The White House said in a statement afterward that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would travel to China to follow up.
In G-20 talks, China objects to calling Russian invasion of Ukraine a ‘war’ (Washington Post)
China joined Russia to oppose using “war” to describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in a joint communique at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia, attempting to undercut an effort by the United States and allies to condemn the conflict in the strongest terms possible.
America Can Contain China With an Alliance of Five (Bloomberg)
Arguments supporting US policy of containment towards China
The US-China rivalry is a global affair, but the heart of the contest is in the Indo-Pacific. This is the world’s most populous, economically dynamic and strategically important region. It is where the Chinese challenge to US power, and to the international system that power underpins, is most severe. It is where outright war between Washington and Beijing is most likely.
China Economy
China’s Economy Takes a Deeper Hit as Retail Sales Turn Negative (Wall Street Journal)
China’s economy sank into a deeper funk last month as the weight of strict zero-Covid measures, a real-estate downturn and sinking export demand underscored the difficulties of rekindling growth amid tighter government regulations and a worsening global economy.
New data released Tuesday showed economic activity cooling across the board in October. Retail sales contracted unexpectedly for the first time in five months as factory output growth slowed and a pullback in real-estate investment accelerated.
China's economy loses momentum as COVID curbs hit factories, consumers (Reuters)
China's economy suffered a broad slowdown in October as factory output grew more slowly than expected and retail sales fell for the first time in five months, underscoring faltering demand at home and abroad.
The world's second-largest economy is facing a series of headwinds including protracted COVID-19 curbs, global recession risks and a property downturn. In a sign of persistent weakness in sector, data on Tuesday also showed property investment falling at its fastest pace since early 2020 in October.
Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on Unsplash