March 4, 2021 | The Risks of Exaggerating the "China Threat"
Underestimating China's competitiveness would be disastrous for the US, but exaggerating China's threat capacity would be even more devastating in the long-term
The Risks of Exaggerating the "China Threat"
Special thanks to John Fowler, writer and publisher of International Intrigue, for prompting me to write today’s notes.
I’m exploring the idea that exaggerating the “China threat” will open the door for US leaders to implement draconian and/or authoritarian measures under the guise of “national security.” Today’s note is part of a series of notes where I try to flesh out this dynamic.
Earlier this week, I published a note on the United States’ effort to forge an “alliance of techno-democracies” to counter China’s rising technological prowess. We still haven’t formulated a clear picture of the long-term geopolitical implications of a US-led techno-democratic alliance. However, we do have a clear picture of emerging technologies that will have the greatest competitive impact on US-China relations and global geopolitics.
It appears the Biden administration is orienting US-China relations toward a competitive dynamic that ultimately boils down to techno-democracy versus techno-authoritarianism. We can debate this strategy's merits and whether it nudges US-China relations into an unnecessary Cold War dynamic. However, what’s not debatable is that the “techno” (technological) component is identical in both techno-democratic and techno-authoritarian models.
On the surface, the implementation of techno-democracy sounds like a logical and much-needed upgrade to traditional democracy. The problem is that techno-democratic principles and traditional democratic principles are not the same things. There’s nothing inherently democratic about emerging technologies like artificial intelligence or quantum computing. China is a prime example of how a large and highly advanced techno-state applies emerging technologies to build out sweeping surveillance programs.
It would be a colossal mistake to believe techno-democracy wouldn’t be capable of implementing similar programs under the guise of “democratic values” and
"national security.” Considering how precariously close the United States still is toward giving up on democracy, American citizens must be cognisant of the myriad ways their government can abuse emerging technologies to erode individual liberties.
The United States and its democratic allies must also recognize the dangers of unwittingly sliding down this slippery slope. During periods of relative calm and peace, it’s easier to identify and deflect government attempts at infringing on constitutional rights. However, it’s much harder to detect such government overreach during periods of elevated political and social volatility like 2020 and the preceding Trump years.
In 2020, we learned a great deal about how right-wing populism influences US foreign policy and China policy. Not to absolve China of blame or agency for the rapid deterioration of US-China relations beginning in 2018, but the Trump administration's central tendency was to drum up widespread anti-China sentiment by presenting China as a maximal and immediate existential threat to US interests.
We can consider anti-China sentiment in light of today’s American China sentiment Pew study, which happened to come out today. American anti-China sentiment does not appear to be improving under Biden:
Today, 67% of Americans have “cold” feelings toward China on a “feeling thermometer,” giving the country a rating of less than 50 on a 0 to 100 scale. This is up from just 46% who said the same in 2018. The intensity of these negative feelings has also increased: The share who say they have “very cold” feelings toward China (0-24 on the same scale) has roughly doubled from 23% to 47%.
I’m not absolving China of any responsibility for its role in undermining the foundation of the US-China relationship. China’s propaganda outlets and “Wolf Warrior” diplomats inflicted tremendous damage to the image of both China and its people. However, I don’t think China’s behavior alone tells the full story of why American sentiment towards China has soured so much.
Popular sentiment towards China matters. Right-wing populism depends on fomenting fear and animosity towards an external enemy to justify authoritarian policy measures. Lawmakers who are either unscrupulous or lacking in foresight will lobby to implement an enhanced public surveillance apparatus to counter a false or inflated China threat. The idea that an American surveillance state is preferable to a Chinese authoritarian state is a wholly unconvincing argument.
To borrow a term used frequently by the Biden administration, the correct course of action is to take a measured, ‘modular’ approach to assess China’s threat capacity. Underestimating China is bad, but overestimating China by presenting it as a semi-fictional caricature is far worse.
Thanks for reading!
Kevin
Photo by Zdeněk Macháček on Unsplash