2017 Xi Jinping eliminated China’s succession principle from the state constitution. In 2022, Xi consummated this historical policy shift by remaining the Chinese paramount leader and president for a third term.
A succession principle is a critical concept within numerous organizational contexts. It refers to the guidelines or rules determining how leadership or ownership transitions from one entity to another.
Yale University’s Timothy Snyder believes an institutionalized succession principle is critical for preserving political systems. It ensures the orderly and predictable power transfer within a government or organization. It safeguards against uncertainty in leadership transitions, which is crucial for the integrity and continuity of governance.
Western business leaders’ ambivalence toward China’s economic prospects is rooted in uncertainty surrounding China’s lack of succession principle.
Western private sector confidence in Xi Jinping’s governance is low. Assuming Xi Jinping will remain China’s paramount leader for the remainder of his lifespan, we face a low probability of improving Western private sector sentiment into the 2030s. At this time, Xi Jinping will be in his 80s.
Given China’s lack of succession principle, we can assume the Western private sector sees a high probability of two paths forward:
Xi Jinping will remain in power for life, after which China will face a power vacuum that will further exacerbate economic uncertainty.
Xi Jinping remains in power for life, after which Xi Jinping’s appointed successor attempts to instill global confidence in China’s economic prospects.
China
Xi Says US CEOs Should Invest in China, Economy Hasn’t Peaked (Bloomberg)
President Xi Jinping met with a group of American business leaders in Beijing including Blackstone Inc.’s Stephen Schwarzman and Qualcomm Inc.’s Cristiano Amon as China is seeking to restore confidence in the economy and keep relations with the US on a stable footing.
China's President Xi meets US executives in Beijing as investment wanes (Reuters)
China's President Xi Jinping met American business leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Wednesday, as the government tries to woo back foreign investors and international firms seeking reassurance about the impact of new regulations.
Beijing wants to boost growth of the world's second largest economy after foreign direct investment shrank 8% in 2023 amid heightened investor concern over an anti-espionage law, exit bans as well as raids on consultancies and due diligence firms.
Israel
U.N. expert in Israel genocide accusation says she has been threatened (Reuters)
A United Nations expert who published a report saying there were reasonable grounds to believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza during its military campaign against Hamas said on Wednesday she had received threats throughout her mandate.
Francesca Albanese, the Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in the West Bank and Gaza, presented a report entitled "Anatomy of a Genocide" to the U.N. Human Rights Council on Tuesday, which Israel said it "utterly rejects".
Anatomy of a Genocide (U.N. Human Rights Council)
By analysing the patterns of violence and Israel’s policies in its onslaught on Gaza, this report concludes that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the threshold indicating Israel’s commission of genocide is met. One of the key findings is that Israel's executive and military leadership and soldiers have intentionally distorted jus in bello principles, subverting their protective functions, in an attempt to legitimize genocidal violence against the Palestinian people.
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