March 10, 2022 | Daily Notes
Current Events Roundup
China, Russia, Ukraine
Whose side is China on? (The Economist)
Most of the world has been outraged by Russia’s war in Ukraine, yet China recently abstained from an emergency UN security council vote to condemn the invasion. David Rennie, The Economist’s Beijing bureau chief, discusses China’s position on the war and whether it might step in to aid Russia in the face of crippling sanctions.
The rising costs of China’s friendship with Russia (Financial Times, Demetri Sevastopulo, James Kynge, Tom Mitchell, Sun Yu)
“For Xi Jinping, some of the very same pressures are starting to build. In the early days of the Russian invasion, China tried to keep its head down — perhaps in the hope that a short, sharp incursion would not cause too many reverberations. But over the past week, as Russia has intensified its bombardment of urban areas, Xi has found himself facing the potential for two interlocking crises.”
China signals shift on Ukraine as Russia accused of atrocities (Nikkei, CK Tan)
China appears to be shifting its tone on the war in Ukraine, as Beijing counts the costs of defending a Russian ally accused of war crimes and braces for the economic fallout from Western-led sanctions.
Russia says China refuses to supply aircraft parts after sanctions (Yahoo Finance)
“China has refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts, an official at Russia's aviation authority was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Thursday, after Boeing and Airbus halted supply of components.
Russia's aviation sector is being squeezed by Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia's foreign ministry warning this week that the safety of Russian passenger flights was under threat.”
Ukraine war: what history tells us about the effectiveness of sanctions (The Conversation)
“We are already seeing the broader consequences of sanctions imposed on Russia, particularly in terms of the rising prices of oil and food. As the world watches Ukraine, it is worth remembering that in the past, the cost of upholding economic sanctions was often seen as too high a price to pay.”
China’s Ukraine conundrum, with Evan Feigenbaum (SupChina, Kaiser Kuo)
“Evan Feigenbaum offers a very compelling analysis of the difficult position that Beijing now finds itself in after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — caught on the horns of a dilemma and unable to resolve conflicting commitments to, on the one hand, territorial sovereignty and, on the other, opposition to American unipolar hegemony. Meanwhile, Beijing is fearful of the repercussions of siding with Russia, fearing that sanctions may have a real bite. Evan also shares his thoughts on how China and Russia differ significantly in their posture toward the “rules-based international order,” on misguided thinking about Taiwan and the “strategic triangle,” and on the reshaping of the geopolitical and geoeconomic order that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will usher in.”
What keeps China from stopping Russia’s war (CNN, Ian Johnson)
“The war in Ukraine has prompted renewed appeals for China to get involved in an international crisis, with commentators discussing how the country is well-placed to negotiate an end to the fighting. Politicians have taken up the call too: the Ukrainian foreign minister reportedly asked China to get involved, while on Tuesday European leaders video-called Chinese leader Xi Jinping in an effort to keep him in the loop.
These ideas all make good sense – but are likely to fail. That’s because China, far from being able to act decisively on the world stage, suffers from a chronic leadership void that leaves it paralyzed to act in the face of global crises.”