April 21, 2021 | US Domestic Investment To Counter China
The US is using a rising China as justification for massive domestic spending. Will this lead to a new cold war?
Congress is moving closer toward passing legislation designed to counter China's growing military, economic and technological prowess. This legislation appears to be consistent with both the Trump and Biden administrations' more hardline approach to a rising China.
The underlying motivation behind the Endless Frontier Act is the likelihood of China's GDP surpassing that of the United States before the end of the decade. China is a growing challenger to US technological dominance as well. For instance, China is already the clear leader in 5G telecommunications technology and according to technologist and former Google chairman Eric Schmidt, China has a real shot of leading the world in artificial intelligence technology unless the US takes action.
It's easy to be skeptical of the United States' ability to successfully legislate a solution to rising tensions with China. Over the past several decades one of China's greatest advantages over the United States has been its ability to leverage its authoritarian model to harness state capacity toward investment in critical infrastructure and technologies. Conversely, the United States has neglected domestic investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and R&D through the same period.
Some may question the reasoning behind the United States' recent effort to "build back better" to counter a rising China. Is China the real focus here or is China a convenient bipartisan consensus adversary? For the GOP this question is more clear as many Republicans view China as an existential threat to US interests. For Democrats, the answer is less clear.
To some extent, it seems as if Democrats are willing to pursue a tougher line against China than, say, the Obama administration. However, it's unlikely Biden views a cold war with China to be in the United States' long-term interest, though I could be wrong. Some argue the United States and China have already been engaged in a quasi-war since Trump unilaterally applied tariffs to Chinese goods beginning in May 2018.
As long as US policymakers frame China as a top US threat to US interests it's hard to imagine relations improving within the next few years. China, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is firmly committed to its current development path and envisions itself as the United States' replacement as the dominant power in Asia.
The geopolitical implications behind this convergence of superpowers are enormous, as the United States can't afford to give up any ground in Asia without setting off a destructive chain reaction causing irreparable damage to US influence in the region. Weakening US influence in the Indo-pacific throws Taiwan's status into doubt, thereby sewing uncertainty into the fabric of the United States' entire alliance structure in Asia.
If we are in a new cold war, then domestic strengthening will matter a lot more as a wider crevasse emerges between the world’s two largest economies.
The fact that the United States is using a rising China as justification for massive domestic spending may not be a bad thing. Domestic investment is sorely needed, and if it can help the United States to outpace and out-innovate China then this could actually contribute to avoiding rising tensions or even a hot war in the future.
After thirty years of unquestioned global dominance, the United States finally has a near-peer competitor in the form of China. The global pandemic has incentivized China to maintain its current trajectory and emboldened its leaders to intensify their push to supplant the United States as the world’s leading 21st-century superpower. Conversely, the United States finally has the political will to invest in itself instead of foreign wars. If the United States is the land of opportunity, now is its chance to capitalize on one.
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Additional Reading
S.3832 - Endless Frontier Act
This bill redesignates the National Science Foundation as the National Science and Technology Foundation and establishes a Directorate for Technology within the foundation.
The goals of the directorate shall be to (1) strengthen U.S. leadership in critical technologies through fundamental research in key technology focus areas, such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and advanced manufacturing; (2) enhance U.S. competitiveness in the focus areas by improving education in such areas and attracting more students to such areas; and (3) foster the impact of federally funded research and development through accelerated translation of advances in the focus areas into processes and products that help achieve national goals.
The Department of Commerce shall carry out a program to designate and support eligible consortia as regional technology hubs that facilitate activities that (1) enable U.S. leadership in a key technology focus area, and (2) support regional economic development that diffuses innovation capacity around the United States.
The Office of Science and Technology Policy, Commerce, the National Security Council, and other relevant federal agencies shall (1) review the national security strategy and programs and resources pertaining to U.S. national competitiveness in science, research, and innovation to support such strategy; and (2) develop a strategy for the federal government to improve such competitiveness to support the national security strategy.
S.1169 - Strategic Competition Act of 2021
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